On January 17, 2020, Saigon Luxury posted the article “Will Vietnamese real estate follow in Hong Kong’s footsteps? Millions of people will be without a roof”.

In the context of the decline in apartment supply in Ho Chi Minh City and new projects starting to set higher price levels, the article then posed a question: will new house prices pull the secondary market up, causing workers’ opportunities to own a home to become increasingly narrow?

More than six years have passed.

Vietnam’s real estate market has experienced many unprecedented fluctuations: the pandemic, a period of rapid credit growth, difficulties in the bond market, a period of declining liquidity, the legal dismantling process and the emergence of a new legal framework.

During the same period, urban infrastructure made important progress. New metro lines, ring roads, highways and airports are expanding the development space of Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and many satellite cities.

The market in 2026 is therefore not just about house prices increasing or decreasing. The current picture includes affordability challenges, changes in living needs and new opportunities coming from infrastructure, legality, urbanization and buyer maturity.

Forecast for 2020: New project prices will affect existing apartments

One of the main observations of the 2020 article is that when new projects establish high prices, buyers will switch to looking for apartments that have been handed over. This demand can cause secondary real estate prices to increase over a period of time.

Developments over the past six years show that this opinion has appeared in many areas.

According to the Ministry of Construction, in 2024, apartment prices in Hanoi will increase by about 40–50% compared to 2023; In Ho Chi Minh City, the increase was recorded at about 20–30%. By the second quarter of 2025, the average apartment price will reach about 80 million VND/m² in Hanoi and 89 million VND/m² in Ho Chi Minh City.

Not only new projects, many apartment buildings that have been in operation for 5–10 years are also revalued, especially in areas with complete infrastructure, stable resident communities and limited new supply.

When a new project is offered for sale at 80–100 million VND/m², existing apartments in the same area with lower prices immediately become a worthy choice. After products with good prices are traded, the remaining selling price tends to adjust up.

However, not all old apartments increase in price equally. The market is increasingly differentiated based on:

• Quality construction and maintenance.
• Operational management capacity.
• Legality and certification status.
• Resident density and quality of amenities.
• Ability to connect to job centres.
• Investor’s reputation.
• Potential for future infrastructure development.

This shows that buyers are increasingly cautious and real estate with real use value is being given more priority.

The gap between house prices and income remains a major challenge

According to the statistics agency, the average income of Vietnamese workers in 2024 will reach about 7.7 million VND/month. Particularly, workers in urban areas reach about 9.3 million VND/month.

Meanwhile, a 50 m² apartment at a price of 80 million VND/m² has a total value of about 4 billion VND. If we take the average urban income as a reference, this apartment price is equivalent to nearly 36 years of a worker’s total income, not including living expenses and loan interest.

This comparison is not representative of all home buyers. Buyers in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City belong to many different income groups; Many families have two sources of income, accumulated capital, existing assets or receive support from relatives.

However, the number still reflects a remarkable fact: the growth rate of house prices in some periods has been significantly faster than the rate of income growth.

A sustainable market needs to serve many levels of demand, from social housing, affordable commercial housing to high-end apartments and luxury real estate.

The shortage does not lie in the market having high-end products, but in the fact that the supply for some income groups is not adequately developed.

Saigon Luxury’s perspective: Lower prices do not mean housing is more accessible

In Saigon Luxury’s opinion, in a context where the world economy remains uncertain, geopolitical tensions persist and investment psychology becomes cautious, real estate prices in some areas or segments may adjust.

However, local price reductions are unlikely to change the big problem of the housing market.

Real estate prices do not move independently. When the economy faces difficulties, house prices may decrease but people’s income, business activities and employment stability may also be affected. Buyers are more cautious, banks evaluate credit profiles more closely, and the ability to accumulate initial capital declines.

Therefore, an apartment with a 5–10% discount may not become easier to buy if the customer’s income simultaneously decreases, the job is less stable, or the cost of borrowing increases.

In fact, the economic loss a family suffers during a period of instability can be greater than the adjusted property value. Buyers see lower prices on the market but no longer have enough confidence or financial capacity to make a transaction.

It is also necessary to distinguish between local discounts and changes in the general level. Some owners who need cash flow may accept a lower sale. A project facing location, legal or operational difficulties may require price adjustments. But assets with complete legality, good location, high quality and real demand often have better stability.

Besides, international instability can increase the cost of energy, construction materials, transportation and financing. These factors directly impact new project development costs, limiting the ability of the primary market to sustainably reduce prices.

Therefore, Saigon Luxury believes that the opportunity to own a home should not be evaluated solely by whether the selling price increases or decreases in a few quarters. Housing accessibility must be considered overall:

• Actual selling price of real estate.
• Income and employment stability.
• The initial capital the buyer must prepare.
• Interest rates and access to credit.
• Living expenses and monthly debt repayment obligations.
• Legality, quality and operating costs of assets.
• Economic development prospects of the region.

A real market becomes more accessible when home prices, incomes and capital expenditures return to equilibrium — not just when some assets fall in price in the short term.

From an investment perspective, the period of market differentiation also creates selective opportunities. Products with real use value, clear legality, strategic location and good operating quality are better able to maintain value in the face of fluctuations.

Meanwhile, falling prices in assets lacking fundamentals do not necessarily mean an attractive opportunity.

Therefore, instead of just waiting for a large-scale price reduction, buyers should simultaneously evaluate the asset quality, personal financial capacity and long-term holding ability.

A reasonable purchase price is important, but legal security, quality of life and the ability to preserve value determine the performance of a real estate throughout the cycle.

Note from the high-end segment: Attractive price is not the deciding factor

Saigon Luxury acknowledges that its observations may not fully reflect the entire real estate market. Our actual transaction data focuses mainly on the high-end and luxury segments — where customers’ behavior, financial capacity and selection criteria have many differences compared to the mass market.

Within this segment, Saigon Luxury still records many customers actively looking for beautiful real estate, with good locations, great value or possessing characteristics that are difficult to replace.

Notably, some transactions can now be completed more smoothly than before.

During periods of strong market growth, it is often difficult for buyers and owners to find common ground on price. Unique products also rarely appear on the market, because the homeowner is not under pressure to sell and buyers have almost no opportunity to approach.

When the market enters the stage of differentiation, the gap in expectations between the two sides tends to narrow. Some owners are willing to negotiate more realistically, while buyers have more time to select and evaluate properties.

So while the number of transactions in the high-end segment may be down, the value of completed transactions remains relatively stable. Assets with clear legalities, good locations, good quality and real scarcity do not record too large fluctuations.

Why are some assets with strong discounts still overlooked by customers?

Saigon Luxury also noted a paradox: there are high-value properties offered for sale at significant discounts but are unlikely to attract high-end customers.

The reason is that attractive prices sometimes come with issues that need to be carefully examined:

• The property is being mortgaged at the bank.
• The owner has many financial obligations that have not been clarified.
• Assets related to the business’s operations are in difficulty.
• Ownership or disposition records still need to be verified.
• The mortgage release, payment and transfer process involves many parties.
• Possibility of disputes arising or requests to block transactions.
• The selling price is low but the time and legal processing costs are difficult to predict.

Just because a real estate is mortgaged does not mean that the property cannot be traded. Many mortgage transactions can still be completed safely if financial obligations are clearly defined, banks coordinate and cash flow is controlled according to a transparent process.

However, with high-value assets, buyers often don’t just look at the discount. They care more about the ability to complete the transaction, the legal ownership and the safety of the entire amount spent.

A property with a 15–20% price reduction but with potential risks of disputes, delayed title transfer or incurring undisclosed financial obligations may be less attractive than a property with a higher price but with complete legal documents and a clear transfer process.

High-end customers use discounted assets for reference

Many customers still research properties that are being offered for sale below market, but the goal is not necessarily to buy immediately.

These cases are often used as reference data to:

• Evaluate the market’s adjustment amplitude.
• Determine a reasonable price for the area.
• Compare quality and legal status between assets.
• Understand the real reason behind a low price.
• Have more bargaining power for real estate they really want to own.

After the comparison process, buyers may still choose a higher priced property if that product has a better location, safer legal status, more suitable quality of life or possesses unique value that is difficult to find in other properties.

The difference lies in the order of priority

Customers with limited budgets often prioritize total purchase price, down payment size, and monthly payment obligations. This is a reasonable choice because financial capacity directly determines the feasibility of the transaction.

For customers with large financial resources, the order of priorities is often different. Price is still important, but not necessarily at the top. Factors to consider first include:

1. Legal safety.
2. Ability to establish clear ownership rights.
3. The level of asset preservation in the long term.
4. Location and scarcity.
5. Quality of life and exploitability.
6. Transparency of owners and transaction processes.
7. Finally, the discount level can be achieved.

In the large property segment, a good deal is not simply about buying a property cheaper than the market. It must be a transaction in which the purchase price is reasonable, legal safety, cash flow is controlled and asset value can be maintained in the long term.

From actual transactions, Saigon Luxury believes that the period of market differentiation not only brings risks. This is also an opportunity for potential buyers to access beautiful products that once appeared very rarely, and at the same time have negotiating conditions on a more realistic basis.

However, the opportunity is only truly valuable when the buyer clearly understands the property, fully checks all documents and builds a safe transaction process.

In the luxury segment, buying right is more important than buying fast — and buying safe is often more important than buying cheap.

Is the high-end segment the cause of rising house prices?

The fact that many new projects are in the high-end segment easily creates the feeling that the entire market is chasing selling prices. But high-end real estate is not the only and not the direct reason why it is difficult for average-income people to buy a house.

Each segment serves a different set of needs.

High-end and luxury real estate meets the needs of location, living space, privacy, architecture, finishing quality, management services and the ability to preserve assets. This segment also contributes to bringing international standards in design, convenience, sustainable development and operations management to the Vietnamese market.

Many high-end projects also have the role of repositioning an area, creating new urban space and attracting residents with high spending ability, thereby supporting the surrounding commercial, service and employment systems.

The problem only appears when the supply structure is unbalanced: the market has many products for strong financial groups but not enough social housing, rental houses and commercial houses suitable for middle-income people.

Therefore, the solution is not to limit the development of the high-end segment. It is necessary to expand the missing segments so that each customer group has a suitable choice.

Why are affordable commercial apartments increasingly rare?

A real estate project must bear many types of costs:

• Land fees and site clearance.
• Financial obligations related to land.
• Construction costs, materials and labor.
• Capital costs during the completion of procedures.
• Infrastructure and utility costs.
• Sales, operating costs and risk provisions.

When input land prices are high, it is difficult for businesses to develop low-cost housing while still ensuring quality and financial efficiency. If the project preparation period lasts many years, capital costs continue to accumulate and are reflected in the selling price.

This is the reason why most new supply in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City focuses on the middle, high-end or luxury segments.

To increase the supply of commercial housing at reasonable prices, the market needs solutions from the beginning:

• Prepare land fund at reasonable cost.
• Shorten and make procedures transparent.
• There are long-term financial mechanisms for businesses.
• Invest in public infrastructure first.
• Encourage rental housing development.
• Develop clear criteria for commercial houses with suitable prices.

Asking businesses to reduce selling prices without dealing with input costs will hardly create sustainable results.

Small apartment: Necessary product but must be properly planned

In 2020, the proposal to develop apartments with a minimum area of ​​25 m² created a lot of debate. After six years, the demand for studio apartments and small apartments has become clearer.

Household size in urban areas is decreasing. The number of single people, young families with few members, short-term working professionals and elderly people living independently tends to increase. These groups don’t necessarily need a large apartment.

A well-designed studio with lighting, ventilation, reasonable storage areas and a full utility system can provide a better quality of life than a large house located too far from work.

However, a small apartment does not automatically mean cheap housing. If the unit price per square meter increases rapidly, the total selling price may still exceed the affordability of many people.

Projects with a high proportion of small apartments must also carefully consider:

• Population density.
• Elevators and emergency exits.
• Parking space.
• Electricity, water and waste treatment systems.
• Schools and medical facilities.
• Common living space.
• Fire safety.

Small apartments should be seen as an option in a diverse product ecosystem, rather than the only solution to the housing problem.

Comparison with Hong Kong: Similarities and differences

Hong Kong is often mentioned as an example of high housing prices, limited development land fund and large gap between real estate prices and income.

From 2010–2013, Hong Kong applied a variety of taxes to limit short-term resale, control certain groups of buyers, and increase costs for transactions other than the first home purchase.

But taxes can only affect demand. It does not directly create more land or housing.

When supply is insufficient to match income, increasing taxes may reduce transactions but will not necessarily cause house prices to decrease correspondingly. By 2024, when the market changed and house prices entered the adjustment period, Hong Kong abolished these special tax measures.

The important lesson is not that all tax policies fail. The lesson is that demand control policies need to go hand in hand with developing supply, public housing and transportation systems.

Vietnam has some similarities with Hong Kong:

• Demand is concentrated in major economic centers.
• House prices rose faster than incomes in some periods.
• Buyers view real estate as a long-term accumulation channel.
• Inner-city land funds are increasingly limited.
• Demand for small apartments increased.

However, Vietnam also has distinct advantages:

• The territorial scale and urban development space are larger.
• Possibility of forming many new economic centers.
• Satellite urban systems can share pressure with the central area.
• Inter-regional infrastructure projects are being heavily invested.
• Supply can expand if legal and planning are improved.

Therefore, Hong Kong should be seen as a reference, not the default future of Vietnamese real estate.

Infrastructure is opening up a new investment map

One of the biggest opportunities in the current market comes from infrastructure.

Metro, ring roads, highways and new airports are shortening the distance between the existing center and new development areas. Places once considered far away can become part of an interconnected urban network.

Ho Chi Minh City no longer only develops around the traditional central area. The economic space is expanding to the East, South, Northwest and stronger connections with Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Long An and Ba Ria – Vung Tau.

This development creates many opportunities:

• Form new employment centers.
• Developing large-scale and synchronous urban areas.
• Create more housing products for many customer groups.
• Enhance the value of projects located near strategic infrastructure.
• Redistribute population and reduce pressure on core areas.

However, real estate prices often react early to infrastructure information. Investors need to distinguish between value formed from actual progress and expected price increases.

A project has long-term potential not just because it is located near a future route. The project must also have clear legality, implementation ability, planning quality and actual usage needs.

New legislation creates the foundation for the next development cycle

The new Land Law, Housing Law and Real Estate Business Law have created an important legal framework for the market.

The implementation process needs more time for agencies, localities and businesses to adapt. However, the general direction is to increase transparency, standardize business operations and resolve problems that have persisted for many years.

If implemented synchronously, the new legal framework can:

• Bring more qualified projects to the market.
• Improve buyer confidence.
• Increase transparency in capital mobilization and use.
• Clarify the investor’s obligations.
• Reduce risks for future products.
• Support market development according to real needs.

In a more mature market, projects with clear legalities, good quality, suitable locations and reputable investors will continue to be prioritized.

Social housing and affordable housing are being promoted

Compared to 2020, social housing is now given a higher priority in housing development policy.

By the end of the third quarter of 2025, the whole country has 696 social housing projects being implemented with a scale of more than 637,000 units. Of these, 165 projects with 116,342 units have been completed; More than 132,000 units belong to projects that have started construction and about 388,000 units are in projects that have had investment policies approved.

In 2026, the whole country is assigned the target of completing more than 158,700 social housing units. The National Housing Fund and local housing funds are also being deployed to create more resources for social housing and rental housing.

This is a positive step, but the final result must be evaluated by the number of completed units and the actual accessibility of people.

A social housing project is only truly effective when:

• Located near jobs or public transportation.
• There are schools, health care and essential services.
• Selling price, rent and installment payment are appropriate to income.
• Transparent registration procedure.
• Construction and operation quality are guaranteed.
• Products reach the right people in need.

The development of social housing does not compete with high-end real estate. The two segments serve different customer groups and together contribute to perfecting the market structure.

Rental and lease-purchase housing will become increasingly important

Owning a home is still the goal of most Vietnamese families. However, not everyone has enough capital to buy a house in the early years of their career.

A mature market needs many options:

1. Buy commercial house.
2. Buy or rent-purchase social housing.
3. Long-term rental with stable contract.
4. Use serviced apartments or flexible living spaces in stages.

By mid-2026, Ho Chi Minh City is paying more attention to rental housing development. An initial survey announced at the city’s conference recorded about 33,520 cases of workers needing access to housing; Of which more than 30,000 cases want to rent and buy.

This shows that many people have the ability to make monthly payments but do not have enough initial capital to buy a house. Lease-purchase models, long-term rentals and housing managed by professional organizations can fill this gap.

2026 buyers are changing

After market fluctuations, buyers are now more interested in real value and long-term use.

Besides price, criteria that are increasingly receiving attention include:

• Project legal.
• Construction progress and handover.
• Investor’s reputation.
• Quality of operational management.
• Construction density.
• Green space and amenities.
• Infrastructure connectivity.
• Property maintenance costs.
• Rental potential and liquidity.
• Quality of residential community.

Especially in the high-end segment, buyers are not only looking for area or location. They care about living experience, privacy, design, service, brand management and long-term value retention.

This motivates investors to compete with quality instead of just sales messages, and helps the market move closer to international standards.

What opportunities are there for Vietnamese real estate in the new period?

Despite many challenges, Vietnamese real estate still has a long-term development foundation.

The urbanization process continues to take place. The middle class expands, household sizes change and the need to upgrade quality of life increases. Inter-regional infrastructure is creating new growth areas, while the new legal framework guides the market towards greater transparency and professionalism.

Opportunities will focus on product groups with clear use value:

• The project has complete legality.
• Real estate near infrastructure that has been or is being actually developed.
• Synchronous urban area, capable of forming a residential community.
• Housing in new economic centers.
• High-end real estate has real distinction.
• Products are professionally managed and operated.
• Social housing, rental housing and commercial housing at reasonable prices.
• Green project, energy saving and sustainable quality of life.

The futures market may not increase evenly like in previous periods. Value will be allocated more to assets with legality, quality, location and actual exploitation ability.

Looking back after six years

The 2020 observation that new project prices may cause old apartment prices to increase has appeared in many areas.

Concerns about the shortage of affordable housing are also increasingly well-founded. However, the current market does not only have worrying factors.

Vietnam is investing heavily in infrastructure, perfecting legal regulations, promoting social housing and forming new urban areas. Buyers have also become more knowledgeable, more cautious and more demanding of quality.

The high-end segment continues to have its own role, serving the needs of upgrading living space, accumulating assets and integrating with international standards. Social housing and affordable housing serve a different set of needs.

A balanced market needs to develop segments simultaneously, instead of placing them on opposite sides.

Conclusion: Aiming for a diverse and sustainable market

After six years, the question is no longer simply whether Vietnamese real estate will become the second Hong Kong or not.

The more relevant question is how Vietnam will use its land, infrastructure, urbanization and policy space to build a market with more choices.

A developed real estate market is not only expressed by price levels. It is also evaluated by urban quality, housing accessibility, transparency and living value that each project creates.

Vietnam still has enough room to form a model different from Hong Kong: more development centers, better connection infrastructure and product systems serving a diverse customer group.

The housing price and income challenge is real. But opportunities are also opening up from new legislation, infrastructure investment, social housing, rental market and the need to improve quality of life.

If these factors are developed synchronously, Vietnamese real estate will not only increase in asset value but can also mature in quality, transparency and ability to make long-term contributions to the city.